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Yesterday, Bobby Jenks blew his second game in four games. His ERA is now up to 5.09 and his WHIP is at 1.585.  White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen reported that he will be going with a closer by committee with Matt Thornton and JJ Putz expected to receive the majority of the save opportunities.

So, what has happened to Bobby Jenks in his blown games this season?

May 9 @ Toronto Blue Jays

0.0 IP / 3 Runs / 4 Hits / 1 HR / 0 Walks / 0 Ks

The White Sox came into the top of the 9th inning, up 5-7. Jenks was set to face the 8-9-1 hitters for the Toronto Blue Jays. On Jenks’ first offering, Travis Snider (105 career OPS+) hit a Ground-rule double to left center. Joe Buck (89 OPS+) followed with a single to right to put runners at first and third with 0 outs. Fred Lewis (105 OPS+) then hit a 3 run home run to give the Blue Jays a 8-7 lead. Jenks would face one more batter and give up another single to Aaron Hill (99 OPS+). (more…)

This is a repost of a story I wrote at South Side Sox.

On Saturday, Alex Rios stole a base and hit another home run.  That brings his season totals (thru 40 games) to 8 home runs and 13 stolen bases.  So far, 2010 has been a stark contrast to the 2009 version of Rios thatWhite Sox fans saw.  In 41 games for Chicago last year, Rios hit 3 home runs and had 5 stolen bases.  He also had an OPS of .530.  This year? .912 OPS.

Obviously, most of you are already aware of this.  You are also aware of the fact that he plays Center Field and is very good at it.  All of these are reasons to get excited about Alex Rios.  Need a reason to get even more excited?  I can’t think of the last White Sox player with the skill set of Rios.

I know projections can be silly, but Rios is on pace for 32 home runs and 52 stolen bases.  I can’t remember ever watching a player in this franchise that has that combination of Power and Speed, can you?  Luckily, we have Bill James’ Power/Speed formula that we can use to compare Rios 2010 projections to previous White Sox players. (more…)

The Chicago White Sox open up their season tomorrow at home against the Cleveland Indians. Even though they were under .500 last year, they are expected to compete with the Twins in the AL Central. If you havent followed the offseason, the following is a comparison between this year’s opening day roster and last year’s.

Three Up

• Gordon Beckham:  As a rookie last year, Beckham put up an OPS over .800 playing out of position at third base.  This season he’s being moved to Second Base, where he’ll probably remain for the rest of his career.  He was only 22 last year and should continue to improve on last year’s numbers.  If he’s not an all star this season, he will be shortly.
• Starting Rotation: With the addition of Jake Peavy at the deadline last year, the White Sox have, arguably, the best rotation in baseball.  Mark Buehrle will the opening day starter and be followed up with Peavy, Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Freddy Garcia.  Freddy Garcia is the obviously the weakest link, but he should keep the 5th starter seat warm long enough for Daniel Hudson.  If they do make the playoffs, this rotation will make them dangerous.
• Team Speed: Since opening day of last year, the White Sox have added Alexis Rios, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Mark Teahen & Omar Vizquel.  That group of players will bring more speed to the basepaths and potentially 80-90 stolen bases.

(more…)

Finding a leadoff man is difficult.  It’s not a position, but it is a spot in the lineup that requires a certain set of skills.  The ability to get on base and run are the two most important skills of a leadoff man.  The 2009 Chicago White Sox have had an interesting group of guys try their hand at lead off.

Dewayne Wise

Origins: Before he was the man behind preserving a perfect game, Wise was the Opening Day leadoff hitter for the White Sox.  That experiment lasted two games.  Coming in to the season Wise was a 31 year old journeyman outfielder who played pretty well late last year for the White Sox.  He didn’t exactly earn the lead off position, but as you will see, there weren’t that many other options.

Stats:
.193 BA
.235 OBP
.312 SLUG
40 OPS+

Currently: Defensive replacement for White Sox.

Chris Getz

Origins: Getz won the starting 2nd baseman job out of Spring Training. He profiled as a light hitting 2nd baseman with a good eye. He primarily hit lead off for Chicago during April & May, but eventually was replaced by Scott Podsednik.

Stats:
.266 BA
.323 OBP
.369 SLUG
79 OPS+

Currently:He lost his spot on top of the lineup, but has continued starting at 2nd as a Rookie.

Brent Lillibridge

Origins: Lillibridge joined the White Sox as part of the Javier Vazquez trade to Atlanta. He is a former top prospect that hasn’t panned out due to his lack of hitting ability.

Stats:
.162 BA
.260 OBP
.191 SLUG
20 OPS+

Currently: He was just called up to Chicago after Alexei Ramirez was hurt and the Peavy trade opened up a Roster spot. I don’t believe he left the airport, since he was sent right back down before appearing in a game.

Jerry Owens

Origins: Jerry Owens was a former football player who has one skill: speed. The problem is you can’t steal first base and he wasn’t able to find other ways to get to first. He only lead off once.

Stats:
.083 BA
.267 OBP
.083 SLUG
-3 OPS+

Currently: He was out of Options so after being sent down, he was claimed by the Mariners. He is currently stealing bases in AAA.

Brian Anderson

Origins: Anderson is a former top prospect who has never lived up to his potential. He wasn’t able to win the job in Spring Training over Dewayne Wise and wasn’t able to produce after Wise lost the job in the regular season. He only hit lead off once, the game after the Owens attempt.

Stats:
.238 BA
.322 OBP
.319 SLUG
67 OPS+

Currently: He is playing in the Boston Red Sox Organization on their AAA affiliate. He asked to be traded after he was sent down, so the White Sox traded him for Mark Kotsay.

Jayson Nix

Origins: The White Sox signed Nix in the Offseason. He was previously a former first round draft pick for Colorado. He’s only lead off 5 times, in various spot starts during the season. He was in a competition with Getz for 2nd during Spring Training, but now he is a super-sub.

Stats:
.225 BA
.294 OBP
.442 SLUG
87 OPS+

Currently: He is playing in the Infield during off days for the starters and has been a nice bench player. He has brought a solid glove and some good pop to the White Sox.

Scott Podsednik

Origins: A former World Series hero for the White Sox, Podsednik wasn’t with an organization when the Season started. After trying out the above, Chicago signed him and he eventually became their leadoff man.

Stats:
.298 BA
.354 OBP
.387 SLUG
92 OPS+

Currently: He continues to be productive in the leadoff spot for Chicago.  He can still get infield hits, but he is a liability in the field.

Mark Kotsay

Origins: Former solid regular for the Oakland As, Kotsay bounced around to Atlanta and Boston. He started the season as a reserve for Boston but was demoted. He was acquired by Chicago for Brian Anderson.

Stats:
.221 BA
.253 OBP
.279 SLUG
36 OPS+

Currently: He was just acquired but has started leadoff one time already. He’ll likely be a bat off the bench and even though he doesn’t have a hit for the White Sox yet, he has been making good contact.

That is quite a group of players listed above.  If you gave me that list before the season started, I would have assumed Chicago was at the bottom of the AL Central.  Podsednik’s 92 OPS+ isn’t amazing, but it is a lot better than any of the above could provide.  It’s also surprising of all the players listed above, it was a washed out veteran off the street that would be the most productive.  If Chicago makes the playoffs this year, Podsednik might be more of a hero then he was in 2005.

While watching the White Sox / Orioles game tonight, I was pleased to see John Danks pick Brian Roberts off at first. I’ve noticed that Danks has improved at keeping runners at first. In his rookie season, baserunners were 91% successful (with 2 pick offs) and last year they were only 74% successful (with 6 pick offs). That’s nothing compared to Mark Buehrle.

A baserunner against Mark Buehrle has a better chance of being picked off then actually swiping a base. In his career, he has picked off 61 baserunners and only given up 36 stolen bases. That’s incredible. Even outside of Buehrle’s pick off move, only 41% of baserunners have been successful stealing. The league average is 73%.

I started wondering, what kind of an effect does this have? I’m going to break it down by adjusting WHIP. WHIP stands for Walks + Hits per Inning PItched. Essentially, WHIP looks at the number of baserunners per Inning (excluding errors). Buehrle’s pitched 1865.2 Innings, given up 1937 hits and 431 walks, so a 1.269 WHIP.

Among active players, a 1.269 career WHIP is the 21st among active players . That feels about right, he isn’t an Elite pitcher, but he is still very good. Now, what if we remove his Pickoffs (61) from his Walk+Hit total? That ends up with a WHIP of 1.236.

Does this make any difference? That adjustment moves him up to 15th. Now to be fair, I didn’t adjust all of the players in baseball, just Buehrle. Still, the guy he passes up (Brandon Webb) only has 8 career pickoffs, so Buehrle benefits from a change like this more than any other MLB pitcher.

Obviously, adjusting the WHIP like I did isn’t really a helpful exercise. WHIP does a good job of measuring baserunners per inning, so no adjustment is really needed. My point is that while Buehrle might lack the strikeout numbers of the elite pitchers, there is something to say about a guy who has pitched 8 straight seasons of 200+ IP and is excellent at neutralizing the opponents running game.